Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122024 240904 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    117.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  17.4  14.7  21.5  13.9  18.8  19.0  25.6  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  58.0  52.0  49.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  94.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  56.0  58.0  51.0  63.0  70.0  29.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  66.0  65.0  66.0  69.0  72.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0   2.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       77.7%       61.1%       69.4%
 25kt / 24h       91.4%       89.0%       90.2%
 30kt / 24h       91.4%       89.0%       90.2%
 35kt / 24h       91.4%       89.0%       90.2%
 40kt / 24h       58.0%       87.8%       72.9%
 45kt / 36h       70.4%       77.7%       74.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       66.6%       33.3%
 55kt / 48h       48.8%       64.3%       56.6%
 70kt / 48h       22.5%       40.7%       31.6%
 65kt / 72h       24.4%       36.4%       30.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 31.08

 WP122024 240904 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    117.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  17.4  14.7  21.5  13.9  18.8  19.0  25.6  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  66.0  65.0  66.0  69.0  72.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0   2.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%