Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122024 240904 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    116.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    40.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     81.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  18.8  17.1  14.8  19.3  24.3  23.0  21.4  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  47.0  46.0  46.0  45.0  60.0  38.0  33.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0  66.0 101.0  76.0  58.0  18.0  33.0  29.0  N  N  F  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  65.0  65.0  69.0  73.0  76.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   5.0  -3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       65.4%       31.0%       48.2%
 25kt / 24h       59.1%       53.0%       56.1%
 30kt / 24h       51.5%       50.6%       51.0%
 35kt / 24h       51.5%       50.6%       51.0%
 40kt / 24h       32.6%       47.0%       39.8%
 45kt / 36h       92.0%       45.9%       69.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 31.12

 WP122024 240904 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    116.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    40.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  18.8  17.1  14.8  19.3  24.3  23.0  21.4  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  65.0  65.0  69.0  73.0  76.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   5.0  -3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%