Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122024 240904 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    116.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    40.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     83.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  17.3  10.3  15.0  23.2  20.4  27.7  18.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  49.0  48.0  46.0  48.0  35.0  45.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  86.0  69.0  66.0  54.0  25.0  28.0  18.0  N  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  78.0  77.0  81.0  81.0  82.0  85.0  87.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0  -5.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       59.5%       20.0%       39.8%
 25kt / 24h       44.7%       36.3%       40.5%
 30kt / 24h       35.8%       31.1%       33.5%
 35kt / 24h       35.8%       31.1%       33.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 31.14

 WP122024 240904 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    116.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    40.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  17.3  10.3  15.0  23.2  20.4  27.7  18.6  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  78.0  77.0  81.0  81.0  82.0  85.0  87.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0  -5.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%