Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122024 240905 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    115.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     74.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  11.0  13.4  13.3  24.3  25.5  24.8  21.2  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  45.0  41.0  41.0  37.0  94.0  33.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  F  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0   6.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0  69.0  66.0  65.0   9.0  41.0  33.0  40.0  F  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  68.0  70.0  73.0  76.0  77.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0   2.0   0.0  -7.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       53.2%       15.3%       34.2%
 25kt / 24h       30.0%       22.6%       26.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.66

 WP122024 240905 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    115.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  11.0  13.4  13.3  24.3  25.5  24.8  21.2  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  68.0  70.0  73.0  76.0  77.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0   2.0   0.0  -7.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%