Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122024 240905 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    114.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  17.8  28.9  31.4  31.3  24.6  25.8  23.8  F  F  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  40.0  41.0   9.0  73.0  36.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  11.6   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  55.0  31.0  76.0  62.0   6.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  73.0  73.0  74.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0   4.0  -4.0  -3.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        1.3%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.7%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.58

 WP122024 240905 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    114.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  17.8  28.9  31.4  31.3  24.6  25.8  23.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  73.0  73.0  74.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0   4.0  -4.0  -3.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        6.0%        3.0%