Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122024 240905 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    113.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  16.7  19.3  22.4  33.6  23.1  27.6  26.7  F  F  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  41.0  47.0  79.0  42.0   9.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  42.0  16.6   7.7  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  47.0  14.0  21.0  27.0  24.0  21.0  33.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  71.0  73.0  75.0  76.0  75.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   3.0   0.0  -8.0  -8.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.7%        3.2%        4.0%
 25kt / 24h        4.7%        6.5%        5.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%        4.4%        3.6%
 35kt / 24h        2.4%        4.0%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.66

 WP122024 240905 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    113.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  16.7  19.3  22.4  33.6  23.1  27.6  26.7  U  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  71.0  73.0  75.0  76.0  75.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   3.0   0.0  -8.0  -8.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.2%        1.6%