Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122024 240906 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    112.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  19.3  21.7  33.2  26.6  24.7  25.8  28.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  35.0  22.0 106.0  41.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  F  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  18.6  -2.3 -10.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  14.0  21.0   6.0  26.0  13.0  22.0  23.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  74.0  74.0  75.0  77.0  76.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   0.0  -5.0  -9.0  -4.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.8%        6.8%       12.3%
 25kt / 24h        7.3%        7.0%        7.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.18

 WP122024 240906 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    112.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  19.3  21.7  33.2  26.6  24.7  25.8  28.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  74.0  74.0  75.0  77.0  76.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   0.0  -5.0  -9.0  -4.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%