Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122024 240906 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00    110.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  25.4  25.9  22.2  29.1  26.1  33.0  30.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   81.0 114.0  52.0  37.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  F  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  26.5   7.7   2.7  -2.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  30.0  35.0  10.0  25.0   4.0  19.0  48.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  78.0  82.0  84.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -5.0 -10.0 -11.0   2.0   2.0   7.0   1.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        1.7%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        2.9%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        1.8%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        1.4%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.76

 WP122024 240906 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00    110.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  25.4  25.9  22.2  29.1  26.1  33.0  30.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  78.0  82.0  84.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -5.0 -10.0 -11.0   2.0   2.0   7.0   1.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.3%        2.2%