Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122024 240907 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    108.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     89.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  22.0  21.8  29.0  30.1  25.4  22.1  21.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  42.0  32.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  35.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  40.1  27.4  16.2  14.4  50.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  21.0  16.0  49.0  20.0   6.0  47.0  10.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  74.0  76.0  75.0  79.0  81.0  83.0  83.0  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0  -5.0 -10.0  -5.0   4.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.5%        4.9%        7.7%
 25kt / 24h        5.7%        7.0%        6.3%
 30kt / 24h        3.7%        4.4%        4.1%
 35kt / 24h        3.5%        4.3%        3.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        3.7%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.94

 WP122024 240907 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    108.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  22.0  21.8  29.0  30.1  25.4  22.1  21.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  74.0  76.0  75.0  79.0  81.0  83.0  83.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0  -5.0 -10.0  -5.0   4.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.5%        1.7%