Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122024 240907 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    106.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     83.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  28.1  31.0  31.3  35.5  35.5  35.5  35.5  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  34.4  16.0   9.6   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -6.0  12.0  32.0  35.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  76.0  75.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0   4.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.4%        3.8%        7.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        2.0%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.84

 WP122024 240907 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    106.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  28.1  31.0  31.3  35.5  35.5  35.5  35.5  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  76.0  75.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0   4.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.7%        1.8%