Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122024 240907 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.20    105.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -50.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  30.1  27.8  30.1  35.7  36.8  34.1  34.1  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         76.6  69.4  66.0  64.3  64.3  67.7  67.7  67.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  42.0  42.0  51.0  63.0  34.0  46.0  46.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  79.0  84.0  83.0  85.0  84.0  84.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   0.0   3.0   4.0   5.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.92

 WP122024 240907 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.20    105.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.