Rapid Intensification Guidance WP132024 240904 00UTC Storm Located at : 27.70 147.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 41.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 27.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.40 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.2 12.0 14.8 19.8 29.1 34.6 47.9 73.6 F F F N N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 19.0 14.0 12.0 18.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 134.3 134.3 132.0 120.7 75.4 50.8 23.4 F F F F N U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 59.0 36.0 -31.0 11.0 23.0 -17.0 -28.0 -37.0 N N VU U U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 61.0 59.0 53.0 43.0 55.0 43.0 42.0 N N U U VU U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.0 3.0 -17.0 4.0 N N N N N N VF N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.8% 8.0% 5.9% 25kt / 24h 11.6% 41.3% 26.5% 30kt / 24h 7.5% 23.7% 15.6% 35kt / 24h 4.4% 23.7% 14.1% 40kt / 24h 2.1% 23.7% 12.9% 45kt / 36h 6.8% 43.2% 25.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 22.6% 11.3% 55kt / 48h 2.0% 1.6% 1.8% 70kt / 48h 1.6% 5.3% 3.4% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.46 WP132024 240904 00UTC Storm Located at : 27.70 147.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.2 12.0 14.8 19.8 29.1 34.6 47.9 73.6 U U U N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 61.0 59.0 53.0 43.0 55.0 43.0 42.0 N N F F VF F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.0 3.0 -17.0 4.0 N N N N N N VU N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%