Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132024 240904 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.50    147.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  16.9  17.9  19.9  28.3  34.0  30.7  40.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  12.0  13.0  19.0  18.0   9.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.3 134.3 132.0 132.0 127.3 106.6  72.9  47.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0 -29.0 -25.0  -5.0 -42.0  40.0  44.0  61.0  N VU VU  U VU  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  55.0  52.0  46.0  51.0  46.0  40.0  U  U  U  U VU  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0   6.0   9.0   0.0  14.0   7.0   4.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        5.1%        3.9%
 25kt / 24h        6.6%       27.7%       17.2%
 30kt / 24h        5.2%       14.0%        9.6%
 35kt / 24h        5.2%       14.0%        9.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%       14.0%        7.2%
 45kt / 36h        4.0%       30.4%       17.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       14.3%        7.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        6.0%        3.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        5.1%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        2.2%        1.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.38

 WP132024 240904 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.50    147.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  16.9  17.9  19.9  28.3  34.0  30.7  40.0  U  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  55.0  52.0  46.0  51.0  46.0  40.0  F  F  F  F VF  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0   6.0   9.0   0.0  14.0   7.0   4.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%