Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132024 240904 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.70    146.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  19.6  24.8  28.3  39.2  33.4  46.2  57.1  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  13.0  18.0  21.0   9.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.3 132.0 132.0 132.0 116.5  74.2  50.8  28.5  F  F  F  F  N  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -35.0   0.0  16.0 -27.0  31.0  17.0 -17.0  26.0 VU  U  U VU  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  49.0  44.0  49.0  47.0  40.0  39.0  U  U  U VU  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   5.0   9.0   1.0   0.0 -16.0   2.0   9.0  N  N  U  N  N VF  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.4%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        8.0%        4.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.9%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.6%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        5.1%        2.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.34

 WP132024 240904 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.70    146.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  19.6  24.8  28.3  39.2  33.4  46.2  57.1  N  N  N  N  F  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  49.0  44.0  49.0  47.0  40.0  39.0  F  F  F VF  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   5.0   9.0   1.0   0.0 -16.0   2.0   9.0  N  N  F  N  N VU  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%