Rapid Intensification Guidance WP132024 240904 18UTC Storm Located at : 31.20 146.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.70 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.5 26.5 34.5 41.4 42.1 44.9 58.7 77.5 N N U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 13.0 21.0 21.0 14.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 137.0 137.0 134.6 130.1 101.0 73.2 42.3 23.1 F F F F N U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -50.0 -11.0 -87.0 -50.0 20.0 -16.0 32.0 20.0 VU U VU VU U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 48.0 47.0 44.0 48.0 45.0 39.0 46.0 U U VU VU U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 3.0 -2.0 -9.0 9.0 -11.0 21.0 24.0 N N N F U F VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.6% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.24 WP132024 240904 18UTC Storm Located at : 31.20 146.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.5 26.5 34.5 41.4 42.1 44.9 58.7 77.5 N N F VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 48.0 47.0 44.0 48.0 45.0 39.0 46.0 F F VF VF F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 3.0 -2.0 -9.0 9.0 -11.0 21.0 24.0 N N N U F U VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%