Rapid Intensification Guidance WP132024 240905 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.40 146.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 18.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 5.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.5 34.5 42.1 45.7 39.8 45.7 65.9 86.1 N U VU VU U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 19.0 18.0 15.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 123.6 117.4 104.4 90.0 64.7 34.7 22.7 18.0 N N N N U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -11.0 -87.0 -50.0 15.0 -15.0 2.0 37.0 33.0 U VU VU U U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 46.0 43.0 48.0 44.0 36.0 36.0 40.0 U VU VU U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 -1.0 -8.0 -8.0 -15.0 19.0 45.0 1.0 N N F F VF VU VU N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.10 WP132024 240905 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.40 146.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.