Rapid Intensification Guidance WP132024 240905 06UTC Storm Located at : 33.10 145.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 9.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.9 35.8 41.4 35.6 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.5 N U VU U U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 20.0 12.0 1.0 19.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 122.9 118.6 106.6 91.1 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -19.0 -34.0 -12.0 7.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 U VU U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 45.0 48.0 49.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 VU VU U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 -4.0 -3.0 -4.0 -21.0 -21.0 -21.0 -21.0 N F N F VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.38 WP132024 240905 06UTC Storm Located at : 33.10 145.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.