Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132024 240905 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.90    146.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.8  36.6  37.2  34.6  46.2  49.3  75.4  90.4  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0   4.0   3.0  19.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.7 112.4 106.6  91.1  69.3  39.0  19.7  12.2  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -43.0  10.0  30.0  16.0  26.0  20.0  39.0  21.0 VU  U  N  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  47.0  48.0  45.0  43.0  40.0  41.0  50.0 VU VU  U VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -5.0  10.0   3.0   7.0   9.0   7.0  26.0  N  F  U  N  N  U  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.28

 WP132024 240905 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.90    146.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.