Rapid Intensification Guidance WP132024 240905 18UTC Storm Located at : 35.00 146.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 14.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.50 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.7 32.6 31.6 36.6 53.9 55.2 78.6 91.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 6.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 109.4 101.6 77.2 67.9 42.6 20.0 7.6 6.1 N N U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -4.0 11.0 15.0 4.0 22.0 30.0 43.0 22.0 U U U U U N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 48.0 45.0 42.0 41.0 40.0 46.0 53.0 VU U VU VU VU VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 0.0 -8.0 -13.0 -14.0 -6.0 -20.0 -19.0 F N F VF VF F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.58 WP132024 240905 18UTC Storm Located at : 35.00 146.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.