Rapid Intensification Guidance WP132024 240906 06UTC Storm Located at : 36.90 149.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.10 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.2 44.7 45.9 48.1 63.4 85.5 101.2 100.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 86.1 75.8 63.2 47.4 18.2 7.0 6.3 7.5 N U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 21.0 48.0 29.0 45.0 59.0 69.0 34.0 0.0 U N N N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 45.0 43.0 42.0 50.0 56.0 55.0 53.0 U VU VU VU U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -3.0 10.0 1.0 19.0 56.0 39.0 -47.0 N N U N VU VU VU VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.30 WP132024 240906 06UTC Storm Located at : 36.90 149.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.