Rapid Intensification Guidance WP132024 240906 12UTC Storm Located at : 38.00 151.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 6.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.60 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 50.0 53.3 51.0 55.3 68.9 85.2 93.3 82.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 74.4 60.9 43.4 30.1 9.4 6.1 6.4 7.9 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -2.0 5.0 31.0 54.0 69.0 3.0 20.0 6.0 U U N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 43.0 41.0 43.0 45.0 49.0 52.0 59.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 4.0 2.0 12.0 10.0 37.0 52.0 53.0 N N N U U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.72 WP132024 240906 12UTC Storm Located at : 38.00 151.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.