Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132024 240906 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.20    153.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        50.6  50.7  54.4  56.3  72.3  80.6  79.2  76.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         56.7  42.6  25.1  14.9   7.2   6.2   7.8   8.6  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  31.0  62.0  61.0  84.0  28.0   9.0 -34.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  41.0  41.0  42.0  46.0  52.0  54.0  55.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0  11.0   5.0  13.0  49.0  52.0  25.0  N  N  U  N  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 21.36

 WP132024 240906 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.20    153.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.