Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142024 240910 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.80    146.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  15.0  11.9  13.9  24.9  21.2  27.9  23.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  104.0  91.0 116.0 132.0 106.0  48.0  52.0  41.0  F  F  F VF  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   120.0 117.0 113.0 126.0 104.0 142.0 100.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F VF  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  78.0  78.0  73.0  75.0  78.0  77.0  68.0  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0  11.0   0.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.7%        8.3%        6.0%
 25kt / 24h       53.2%       70.6%       61.9%
 30kt / 24h       23.7%       49.6%       36.7%
 35kt / 24h        9.4%       45.7%       27.6%
 40kt / 24h        5.4%       45.7%       25.5%
 45kt / 36h       46.7%       80.4%       63.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       61.8%       30.9%
 55kt / 48h       65.2%       65.0%       65.1%
 70kt / 48h       65.2%       64.2%       64.7%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       76.8%       69.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.22

 WP142024 240910 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.80    146.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  15.0  11.9  13.9  24.9  21.2  27.9  23.5  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  78.0  78.0  73.0  75.0  78.0  77.0  68.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0  11.0   0.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%