Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142024 240910 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.60    145.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  13.6  17.7  22.3  27.3  30.5  21.6  22.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  120.0 138.0 143.0 151.0  57.0  54.0  41.0  65.0  F VF VF VF  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   123.0  96.0 117.0 118.0 164.0 136.0  53.0  46.0  F  F  F  F VF VF  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  83.0  81.0  77.0  74.0  75.0  73.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  14.0   5.0   4.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.2%       12.0%       10.6%
 25kt / 24h       62.1%       71.7%       66.9%
 30kt / 24h       35.5%       51.0%       43.2%
 35kt / 24h       18.2%       47.9%       33.1%
 40kt / 24h        7.5%       47.9%       27.7%
 45kt / 36h       49.1%       78.3%       63.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       58.4%       29.2%
 55kt / 48h       51.6%       56.1%       53.9%
 70kt / 48h       40.8%       54.1%       47.5%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       71.9%       66.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.26

 WP142024 240910 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.60    145.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  13.6  17.7  22.3  27.3  30.5  21.6  22.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  83.0  81.0  77.0  74.0  75.0  73.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  14.0   5.0   4.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%