Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142024 240910 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.60    145.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  20.1  26.0  28.2  21.4  29.1  26.0  25.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0 140.0 143.0 134.0  42.0  50.0  49.0  66.0  N VF VF VF  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    98.0 112.0 127.0 112.0 134.0  87.0  47.0   7.0  F  F  F  F VF  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  73.0  75.0  75.0  77.0  71.0  67.0  N  F  N  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   6.0   4.0   1.0   6.0   7.0  13.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.8%       10.2%        7.5%
 25kt / 24h       50.9%       64.9%       57.9%
 30kt / 24h       19.9%       44.3%       32.1%
 35kt / 24h        9.8%       42.3%       26.0%
 40kt / 24h        3.5%       39.8%       21.6%
 45kt / 36h       39.9%       76.9%       58.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       57.5%       28.7%
 55kt / 48h       51.2%       52.8%       52.0%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       45.5%       35.1%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       59.2%       60.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.22

 WP142024 240910 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.60    145.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  20.1  26.0  28.2  21.4  29.1  26.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  73.0  75.0  75.0  77.0  71.0  67.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   6.0   4.0   1.0   6.0   7.0  13.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%