Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142024 240910 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    144.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     88.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  26.2  25.9  16.2  33.4  29.8  28.3  24.2  F  N  N  F  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  144.0 153.0 151.0 112.0  48.0  46.0  57.0  66.0 VF VF VF  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   113.0 127.0 112.0 159.0 133.0  43.0  35.0  -7.0  F  F  F VF VF  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  76.0  77.0  76.0  74.0  70.0  65.0  F  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  10.0  15.0   7.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.5%       15.9%       12.7%
 25kt / 24h       67.5%       77.5%       72.5%
 30kt / 24h       35.0%       62.5%       48.8%
 35kt / 24h       18.2%       62.1%       40.1%
 40kt / 24h        9.0%       58.9%       34.0%
 45kt / 36h       44.6%       77.6%       61.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       58.9%       29.5%
 55kt / 48h       51.2%       54.5%       52.9%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       43.7%       34.2%
 65kt / 72h       61.1%       55.6%       58.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.18

 WP142024 240910 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    144.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  26.2  25.9  16.2  33.4  29.8  28.3  24.2  N  N  N  U  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  76.0  77.0  76.0  74.0  70.0  65.0  U  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  10.0  15.0   7.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%