Rapid Intensification Guidance WP142024 240911 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.50 141.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 50.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 37.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.3 13.8 20.9 27.0 24.1 24.4 23.3 27.1 N F N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 160.0 127.0 79.0 53.0 46.0 48.0 52.0 58.0 VF F N N N N N N Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 120.0 153.0 122.0 142.0 51.0 42.0 -6.0 32.0 F VF F VF N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 71.0 74.0 76.0 75.0 72.0 66.0 63.0 N N N F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -1.0 15.0 11.0 6.0 10.0 5.0 10.0 N N U U N U N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.7% 6.1% 4.9% 25kt / 24h 36.9% 46.0% 41.4% 30kt / 24h 14.7% 24.9% 19.8% 35kt / 24h 3.7% 21.9% 12.8% 40kt / 24h 3.3% 21.9% 12.6% 45kt / 36h 25.1% 40.0% 32.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 16.5% 8.3% 55kt / 48h 41.6% 28.1% 34.9% 70kt / 48h 24.8% 14.5% 19.6% 65kt / 72h 56.5% 31.0% 43.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.06 WP142024 240911 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.50 141.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.3 13.8 20.9 27.0 24.1 24.4 23.3 27.1 N U N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 71.0 74.0 76.0 75.0 72.0 66.0 63.0 N N N U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -1.0 15.0 11.0 6.0 10.0 5.0 10.0 N N F F N F N F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%