Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142024 240911 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    140.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  27.1  22.9  23.0  22.9  13.9  13.3  25.1  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  64.0  67.0  51.0  51.0  62.0  52.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   153.0 128.0  98.0  72.0  63.0  37.0  42.0  20.0 VF  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  75.0  76.0  74.0  68.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   3.0   7.0   4.0   8.0   7.0   4.0   6.0  U  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.1%       10.9%        9.5%
 25kt / 24h       48.7%       61.6%       55.2%
 30kt / 24h       20.1%       44.0%       32.1%
 35kt / 24h       12.7%       44.0%       28.3%
 40kt / 24h        5.2%       41.7%       23.4%
 45kt / 36h       31.4%       61.5%       46.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       38.5%       19.2%
 55kt / 48h       47.3%       49.1%       48.2%
 70kt / 48h       24.1%       32.8%       28.4%
 65kt / 72h       53.8%       52.8%       53.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.70

 WP142024 240911 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    140.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  27.1  22.9  23.0  22.9  13.9  13.3  25.1  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  75.0  76.0  74.0  68.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   3.0   7.0   4.0   8.0   7.0   4.0   6.0  F  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%