Rapid Intensification Guidance WP142024 240912 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.40 140.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 91.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 82.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 131.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.2 26.8 24.0 22.8 16.1 12.9 16.3 15.9 N N N N F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 49.0 51.0 38.0 46.0 50.0 56.0 37.0 56.0 N N U N N N U N Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 129.0 103.0 54.0 81.0 26.0 39.0 -9.0 45.0 F F N N U N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 82.0 79.0 78.0 76.0 71.0 70.0 69.0 67.0 F F F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 12.0 2.0 10.0 3.0 N U U N U N U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 27.8% 21.0% 24.4% 25kt / 24h 62.2% 71.4% 66.8% 30kt / 24h 38.7% 62.4% 50.5% 35kt / 24h 35.9% 62.4% 49.1% 40kt / 24h 19.0% 59.5% 39.3% 45kt / 36h 42.6% 73.0% 57.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 56.6% 28.3% 55kt / 48h 44.6% 57.0% 50.8% 70kt / 48h 17.1% 41.6% 29.3% 65kt / 72h 26.1% 47.7% 36.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.28 WP142024 240912 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.40 140.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 131.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.2 26.8 24.0 22.8 16.1 12.9 16.3 15.9 N N N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 82.0 79.0 78.0 76.0 71.0 70.0 69.0 67.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 12.0 2.0 10.0 3.0 N F F N F N F N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%