Rapid Intensification Guidance WP222024 241026 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.10 111.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 59.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 35.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.2 31.7 32.5 27.5 20.7 19.4 22.6 25.2 U U U N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.0 13.0 9.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 97.9 95.7 95.7 95.7 97.9 102.3 97.9 95.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 63.0 71.0 62.0 41.0 26.0 17.0 16.0 10.0 N N N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 68.0 67.0 72.0 74.0 79.0 82.0 80.0 N N N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 2.8% 1.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.1% 0.7% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 1.8% 1.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 1.2% 0.7% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.82 WP222024 241026 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.10 111.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.2 31.7 32.5 27.5 20.7 19.4 22.6 25.2 F N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 68.0 67.0 72.0 74.0 79.0 82.0 80.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%