Rapid Intensification Guidance AL012025 250624 12UTC Storm Located at : 36.20 49.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 10.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.30 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.8 38.0 42.1 43.3 36.4 28.2 23.2 22.2 U U VU VU U N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 10.0 7.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 43.4 40.4 40.4 35.8 30.7 25.9 22.0 17.9 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -12.0 -32.0 -61.0 -94.0 -12.0 6.0 17.0 22.0 U VU VU VU U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 46.0 47.0 49.0 50.0 51.0 51.0 45.0 VU VU VU U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 0.0 2.0 7.0 5.0 7.0 -18.0 -17.0 F N N N N N VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.02 AL012025 250624 12UTC Storm Located at : 36.20 49.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.