Rapid Intensification Guidance AL012025 250624 18UTC Storm Located at : 37.30 48.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.30 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.2 43.5 40.7 34.3 34.3 34.3 34.3 34.3 U VU VU U U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 38.4 32.8 31.7 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -24.0 -60.0 -93.0 -29.0 -29.0 -29.0 -29.0 -29.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 53.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 9.0 6.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 F U N U U U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.04 AL012025 250624 18UTC Storm Located at : 37.30 48.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.