Rapid Intensification Guidance AL012025 250625 00UTC Storm Located at : 38.30 45.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.7 39.7 39.7 39.7 39.7 39.7 39.7 39.7 VU U U U U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 38.4 35.1 35.1 35.1 35.1 35.1 35.1 35.1 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -56.0 -80.0 -80.0 -80.0 -80.0 -80.0 -80.0 -80.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 U U U U U U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 20.70 AL012025 250625 00UTC Storm Located at : 38.30 45.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.