Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL022025 250628 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20     93.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.7  36.1  33.6  29.6  38.7  30.1  25.5  30.0  N  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  32.0  30.0  31.0  25.0  15.0  10.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  64.0  80.0  96.0  50.0  34.0  58.0  52.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  81.0  78.0  80.0  77.0  74.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0 -11.0  -5.0  -5.0  -9.0  -6.0  -4.0   2.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        6.0%        3.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        5.4%        2.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        2.3%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        5.8%        3.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.66

 AL022025 250628 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20     93.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.7  36.1  33.6  29.6  38.7  30.1  25.5  30.0  N  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  81.0  78.0  80.0  77.0  74.0  72.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0 -11.0  -5.0  -5.0  -9.0  -6.0  -4.0   2.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%