Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL022025 250629 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50     94.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.9  38.6  35.6  40.6  37.9  38.7  38.7  38.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  34.0  39.0  44.0  34.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  30.0  25.0  36.0  50.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  80.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -2.0  -3.0  -5.0   1.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.5%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.2%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.70

 AL022025 250629 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50     94.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.9  38.6  35.6  40.6  37.9  38.7  38.7  38.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  80.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -2.0  -3.0  -5.0   1.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%