Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL022025 250629 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70     95.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.4  31.7  35.6  40.7  31.2  31.2  31.2  31.2  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  32.0  33.0  34.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  56.0  44.0  26.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  81.0  79.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0   3.0  -3.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.3%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.7%        1.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        4.0%        2.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.64

 AL022025 250629 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70     95.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.4  31.7  35.6  40.7  31.2  31.2  31.2  31.2  F  N  F VF  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  81.0  79.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0   3.0  -3.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%