Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL022025 250629 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00     96.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.5  38.3  42.9  36.8  36.8  36.8  36.8  36.8  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  35.0  36.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  91.0  28.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  N  F  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.0%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%        8.2%        5.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.7%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.5%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        7.7%        4.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        2.0%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        2.4%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h       -0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        3.4%        1.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.58

 AL022025 250629 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00     96.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.5  38.3  42.9  36.8  36.8  36.8  36.8  36.8  F  F VF  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%