Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL022025 250629 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90     96.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.6  43.5  39.3  34.6  34.6  34.6  34.6  34.6  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  39.0  35.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  17.0  -4.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  79.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -2.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        1.4%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%        8.5%        5.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        3.0%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        2.9%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        2.5%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        6.6%        3.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        2.1%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.54

 AL022025 250629 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90     96.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.6  43.5  39.3  34.6  34.6  34.6  34.6  34.6  F VF  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  79.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -2.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%