Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032025 250705 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.50     79.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.4  22.3  24.6  22.4  20.6  17.5  10.1  10.1  U  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   80.0  79.0  66.0  48.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        118.6 118.6 114.4 114.4 106.6 112.4  80.8  80.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  47.0  -5.0 -35.0 -18.0  38.0  -6.0  -6.0  U  N  U VU  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  57.0  58.0  59.0  61.0  61.0  64.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  11.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.9%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%        5.8%        3.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.9%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.4%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%       10.1%        5.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        3.2%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h       13.3%        4.8%        9.0%
 70kt / 48h        4.8%        2.3%        3.5%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%        4.8%        3.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.62

 AL032025 250705 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.50     79.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.4  22.3  24.6  22.4  20.6  17.5  10.1  10.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  57.0  58.0  59.0  61.0  61.0  64.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  11.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%