Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032025 250705 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.70     78.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  20.8  17.8  14.9  18.1  11.1  12.7  12.7  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  55.0  30.0   9.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        118.6 118.6 114.4 112.4 112.4 108.5  65.9  65.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0   4.0  -2.0  11.0  15.0   1.0  15.0  15.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  59.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  66.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   4.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  10.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        6.5%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.4%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%       10.5%        5.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        3.4%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h       11.9%        4.3%        8.1%
 70kt / 48h        4.3%        2.7%        3.5%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        3.7%        2.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.60

 AL032025 250705 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.70     78.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  20.8  17.8  14.9  18.1  11.1  12.7  12.7  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  59.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  66.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   4.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  10.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%