Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032025 250705 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.80     79.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  17.9  15.2  17.7  14.2  12.3  12.6  12.6  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  29.0   5.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        109.4 109.4 107.4 107.4  99.8  83.0  60.9  60.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -18.0   4.0   7.0  17.0   5.0   7.0  26.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  58.0  56.0  60.0  60.0  62.0  64.0  64.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   0.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        1.7%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%        8.3%        4.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        3.3%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        2.6%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%       12.9%        7.1%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        4.6%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h       12.4%        4.8%        8.6%
 70kt / 48h        4.8%        3.1%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        3.1%        1.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.50

 AL032025 250705 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.80     79.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  17.9  15.2  17.7  14.2  12.3  12.6  12.6  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  58.0  56.0  60.0  60.0  62.0  64.0  64.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   0.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%