Rapid Intensification Guidance AL032025 250706 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.30 78.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 27.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 22.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.90 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.4 16.1 16.1 14.4 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 108.6 104.4 94.8 94.8 79.6 79.6 79.6 79.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -4.0 30.0 0.0 -7.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 U N U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 57.0 58.0 61.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 U U U N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 0.0 -1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.5% 2.3% 1.9% 25kt / 24h 1.1% 8.0% 4.6% 30kt / 24h 0.9% 3.5% 2.2% 35kt / 24h 0.9% 2.9% 1.9% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 2.7% 1.3% 45kt / 36h 1.1% 11.2% 6.1% 55kt / 36h 1.1% 4.1% 2.6% 55kt / 48h 9.6% 3.7% 6.6% 70kt / 48h 3.7% 2.4% 3.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 3.3% 1.7% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.38 AL032025 250706 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.30 78.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.