Rapid Intensification Guidance AL032025 250706 06UTC Storm Located at : 33.30 78.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 33.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 25.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.90 F TC SIZE [%] 99.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.3 16.2 14.6 13.9 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 3.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 94.4 84.8 62.2 69.6 47.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 N N U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -5.0 -11.0 34.0 6.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 U U N U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 55.0 59.0 60.0 67.0 67.0 67.0 67.0 U U U N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 -1.0 3.0 -1.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 N N N N U U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.8% 4.8% 5.3% 25kt / 24h 2.4% 8.5% 5.5% 30kt / 24h 2.2% 4.4% 3.3% 35kt / 24h 1.9% 3.8% 2.8% 40kt / 24h 0.9% 3.3% 2.1% 45kt / 36h 1.8% 9.7% 5.7% 55kt / 36h 1.8% 3.8% 2.8% 55kt / 48h 14.0% 0.5% 7.3% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.76 AL032025 250706 06UTC Storm Located at : 33.30 78.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.