Rapid Intensification Guidance AL032025 250706 12UTC Storm Located at : 34.00 79.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 17.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 5.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.30 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.0 14.4 14.6 14.6 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.2 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 99.8 77.2 64.3 62.0 34.0 34.0 34.0 34.0 N U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -4.0 12.0 1.0 22.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 58.0 60.0 63.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 U U N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 2.0 1.0 -2.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 N N N N VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.72 AL032025 250706 12UTC Storm Located at : 34.00 79.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.