Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032025 250706 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.50     79.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  13.3  13.5  15.7  15.7  15.7  15.7  15.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         94.6  74.3  72.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0 -21.0  26.0  42.0  42.0  42.0  42.0  42.0  U VU  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  60.0  62.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        0.0%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.94

 AL032025 250706 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.50     79.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.