Rapid Intensification Guidance AL042025 250804 00UTC Storm Located at : 34.00 69.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 34.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 23.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.70 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.8 27.5 32.5 37.6 42.4 45.2 50.7 56.7 N N U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 27.0 17.0 18.0 15.0 7.0 11.0 10.0 3.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 87.7 87.7 86.0 91.2 84.3 82.7 81.1 78.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 51.0 19.0 0.0 21.0 -7.0 27.0 14.0 19.0 N U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 55.0 52.0 46.0 43.0 45.0 54.0 55.0 U U U VU VU VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 -3.0 -7.0 N N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.4% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 1.3% 0.7% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.64 AL042025 250804 00UTC Storm Located at : 34.00 69.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.