Rapid Intensification Guidance AL042025 250804 06UTC Storm Located at : 34.30 68.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 23.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 13.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.6 25.4 37.6 39.3 39.0 40.0 45.0 48.4 N N U U U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 14.0 19.0 18.0 11.0 7.0 17.0 1.0 2.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 87.7 86.0 91.2 89.4 82.7 79.6 79.6 72.2 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 23.0 6.0 2.0 5.0 1.0 38.0 51.0 14.0 U U U U U N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 52.0 45.0 41.0 38.0 46.0 49.0 46.0 U U VU VU VU VU U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 7.0 0.0 -6.0 -13.0 N N N N N N F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.64 AL042025 250804 06UTC Storm Located at : 34.30 68.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.