Rapid Intensification Guidance AL042025 250804 12UTC Storm Located at : 35.00 68.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 35.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 28.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.5 43.5 42.2 45.1 45.8 49.2 53.3 61.4 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 10.0 13.0 12.0 11.0 20.0 19.0 1.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 86.0 91.2 89.4 84.3 82.7 75.0 73.6 60.5 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 5.0 15.0 20.0 -2.0 11.0 40.0 37.0 3.0 U U U U U N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 44.0 41.0 39.0 40.0 47.0 45.0 46.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 4.0 8.0 8.0 1.0 -6.0 -12.0 -5.0 N N U U N F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.62 AL042025 250804 12UTC Storm Located at : 35.00 68.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.