Rapid Intensification Guidance AL042025 250805 18UTC Storm Located at : 38.20 62.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 16.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 10.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.40 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 48.9 49.2 52.2 58.0 70.7 73.9 65.9 57.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 41.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 87.7 80.0 81.5 80.0 64.3 28.7 36.4 25.1 N N N N U VU U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 28.0 48.0 47.0 47.0 -2.0 4.0 24.0 -31.0 U N N N U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 39.0 44.0 46.0 46.0 44.0 41.0 45.0 43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 -8.0 -9.0 -21.0 -23.0 -25.0 -30.0 N N F F VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.02 AL042025 250805 18UTC Storm Located at : 38.20 62.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.