Rapid Intensification Guidance AL042025 250806 00UTC Storm Located at : 38.70 61.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 23.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 8.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 48.8 50.9 56.5 63.5 67.1 63.9 48.2 44.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 40.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 81.5 81.5 80.0 69.2 45.0 32.3 37.1 29.6 N N N U U VU U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 45.0 60.0 43.0 -2.0 32.0 52.0 25.0 -17.0 N N N U N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 45.0 45.0 43.0 40.0 34.0 40.0 44.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 -3.0 -7.0 -8.0 -18.0 -31.0 -38.0 -9.0 N N F F VF VF VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.78 AL042025 250806 00UTC Storm Located at : 38.70 61.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.